Does “Wicked: For Good”‘s humongous first weekend at the box office, despite criticism of its artistic merit, mean that up is down? Is it the 80s – does bad mean good again?
Or, do audiences just not care what movie critics think? But wait, wouldn’t that mean Comcast, who own NBC and Universal, actually knew what it was doing when it split this kid-friendly mega blockbuster in two and released it on an empty weekend during peak go-to-the-movies-with-your-family season in back-to-back years? Heavens, no, it couldn’t be!
Sarcasm aside, that’s exactly what happened. Personally, I’m most interested in what this lesson means for NBCUniversal’s position in the streaming wars, where Wicked’s success is a palpable challenge to Disney, Paramount, Netflix, Warner Bros. Discovery, and even Apple.
In an absolutely critical holiday season for Disney, Wicked’s success will be the measuring stick. Furthermore, in a crowded landscape, blockbuster success paired with NBC’s growing sports offerings could help separate Peacock from the streaming pack.
It also wouldn’t be a streaming article without mentioning the Warner Bros. sale implications of it all…
Here’s the reality: Surprisingly, the second and final part of the Broadway musical-inspired film sensation even managed to outperform the first, as the Wall Street Journal reports:
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“The U.S and Canada total of $150 million, one of the biggest domestic openings of the year… Last year the first “Wicked” opened to $112.5 million domestically on the same pre-Thanksgiving weekend.”
That’s no small feat, given that the film industry limped through Q3 (and Q4). I’ve broken it all down based on my biggest takeaways: 1) The rest of the holiday slate is now under even greater pressure, and 2) blockbuster success strengthens NBCU’s sports-focused pole position.
Holiday movies 2025 depend on three films
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again – for film studios, 2025 so far has been a case of great start into banana peel-slip, fall, and probable injury.
Q1 and Q2 revenues were up for studios and theater chains alike, as evidenced by AMC reported $2.3 billion in revenue (14% better than the same period in 2024) per their August 11th Securities and Exchange Commission 8-K.
Then came October. Disney’s “Tron: Ares” flopped, leaving a light cycle-sized hole in their balance books. Warner Bros. Paul Thomas Anderson darling “One Battle After Another” did a reverse-Wicked, garnering praise but failing to catch the zeitgeist. Universal’s “Black Phone 2” was a decently profitable indie horror, but that wasn’t going to cut it. All told, it was the worst October at the domestic box office since 1998, per Box Office Mojo.
So, the box office was set to rely on three blockbusters to put October in the rearview and save 2025, one from NBCUniversal and two from Disney. As Variety reported:
Welp, “Wicked: For Good” has worked its magic. Now it’s time for Disney’s offerings to step up.
Wicked puts pressure on Disney, Marvel Studios’ holiday slate
Given that Comcast/NBCU are Disney’s direct rival in films, streaming, and parks – and are hoping to make the power move of acquiring Warner Bros. Discovery – one could argue that Wicked’s performance puts even greater pressure on Zootopia and Avatar. In fact, I’m arguing that, right now.
The pressure on the Disney holiday slate has been exacerbated by a) Disney doubling down on its content offerings, and b) Marvel’s historic 2025 underperformance.
Disney has a lot of faith in the ability of their superior intellectual property (IP) – think franchises with recognizable characters – to keep them ahead of other streamers.
“With what’s happening in the industry right now, Bob and the team really built the IP portfolio that we have over the last decade, whether it was the Fox acquisition or Lucas or Pixar,” Carlos Gomez, Walt Disney Head of Investor Relations, said during Disney’s Q4 Earnings Report. “So we actually feel like we’ve got a great portfolio, and we don’t need to do anything.”
That’s great, but that portfolio hasn’t performed as of late. Marvel Studios, Disney’s crown jewel, had such a down year in 2025 that it seemed almost purposeful, with all three of their films (Fantastic Four/$500 million, Captain America $200 million, Thunderbolts/$190 million) falling well short of Marvel’s international box office standards, where their best films typically total past the billion-dollar mark:
Top 5 Marvel films of all time, by global box office:
- “Avengers: Endgame” (2019): $2.79 billion
- “Avengers: Infinity War” (2018): $2.05 billion
- “Spider-Man: No Way Home” (2021): $1.92 billion
- “Black Panther” (2018): $1.34 billlion
- “Deadpool & Wolverine” (2024): $1.33 billion
Source: Box Office Mojo
Hollywood dealmakers and super fans will await Zootopia and Avatar’s opening weekend numbers (and their international returns) to see if Disney can wrest back control before 2025 closes out. If not, it’s on to 2026 with Marvel in the spotlight.
NBCUniversal sports package is their superpower
We came into November with statements from both NBCUniversal and Disney bosses about their respective strengths. Now, their reality might be changing.
Disney CEO Bob Iger doubled down on Disney’s focus on IP-driven hits, especially at the box office:
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“If you look at the slate for the rest of [2026], it’s about as strong as it’s been in a while, maybe stronger,” Iger said during Disney’s Q4 earnings on Nov. 13th. “[We have] ‘The Mandalorian,’ ‘Toy Story 5,’ a live-action ‘Moana,’ and we are going to finish the calendar year with ‘Avengers: Doomsday.’ We are very bullish on the slate ahead.”
His counterpart at Comcast, CEO Dave Roberts, may have forced Iger’s hand. Roberts believes NBC’s recent mega-deal acquisition of NBA rights from Warner Bros.’ TNT has gained NBC and their streamer Peacock tremendous ground on the sports front. Viewers will have to adjust to new Peacock exclusive NBA national TV games:
NBA
“We’re building momentum across NBC and Peacock as we head into one of the most exciting stretches of live sports in our history,” CEO Dave Roberts said on Comcast’s Q3 Earnings Call per the Hollywood Reporter.
“In February, we’ll have the Super Bowl, Winter Olympics and NBA All-Star Weekend, followed by the World Cup on Telemundo in June,” Comcast President Mike Cavanaugh detailed during the Q3 Earnings Report.
So, NBC put the pressure on Disney by rolling out the (return of) the NBA on NBC and flexing their formidable winter into summer sports slate. Disney shot back by emphasizing their possibly untouchable film slate. Now, NBCU has come surging back with Wicked landing a house on its critics (“Wicked: For Good” Is Very, Very Bad, wrote Justin Chang for the New Yorker – great title) with a resounding opening box office, putting the ball in Disney’s court.
“Zootopia 2” and “Avatar: Fire and Ash”‘s returns will provide the next blows in the bout. The unpredictability of the streaming conflicts, however, is more obvious than ever. It used to seem like NBC/Peacock might win sports and lose films to Disney, but this weekend proved both players have a few more tricks up their sleeves.
For my money, Disney’s slew of valuable IP should still push it past all comers in 2026. That said, if the right rival got a hold of Warner Bros. Discovery, Disney might have a true box office rival on their hands…
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