Transcript:
Caroline Woods
Joining me now is Tsvetta Kaleynska, founder and CEO of Rila Global Consulting. Great to have you at the desk. Thanks so much for joining us.
Tsvetta Kaleynska
Thanks so much for having me.
Caroline Woods
So your company analyzed 11 million social posts over the last 30 days to figure out what Americans are buying and what essentially go wrong this holiday season. So let’s break it all down. I guess let’s start on the retail side. What are the biggest risks to holiday spending right now?
Tsvetta Kaleynska
So when I analyze consumers and digital conversations on social media, what I care about and what I want to see is how Main Street basically reacts to new products, new trends, sensations, or anything interesting that could impact Wall Street and the financial aspects and the earnings. When I analyzed the last month of discussions, when it comes to retail shopping, purchasing behavior, there were a few interesting things that I saw for retailers specifically, the one thing that we can mention to be very careful with, with the based on the data that we saw, is actually app and website glitches and abandoned shopping carts.
Tsvetta Kaleynska
So over and over, the discussions on social media showed us that a lot of the consumers are abandoning their shopping carts or moving to their shopping cart to another retailer because of app and website glitches. So that would be my number one thing, especially now going into the holidays.
Caroline Woods
So that’s interesting. So it’s technical glitches, not because they’re abandoning because they realize they can’t afford to pay for what’s in the shopping cart. Right.
Tsvetta Kaleynska
Yeah. Absolutely technical. And it goes really hand-in-hand with more of the operational side that we saw through the discussions on social media, what consumers are facing. So any time on the operational part of the website or their app does not work, the shopping cart basically gets abandoned or it gets moved to another retailer who can actually provide. The second interesting thing in addition to that was actually shipping, shipping speed and anything related to the deliverability of the products within the specific context or timeline that the customer is expecting.
Tsvetta Kaleynska
So there is a lot of that expectation, coupled with the technical aspect that these retailers have to watch out for.
Caroline Woods
So if they can’t get it soon enough, they’ll just switch retailers altogether.
Tsvetta Kaleynska
Well, not so much. So I’d say what consumers actually pointed out was, if you promise me that you will deliver it within that time window, you really better do it. Otherwise I will not order with you the next time around. So it wasn’t so much for any of the promises made. It was actually on the deliverability side of did you actually deliver it on time for me?
Caroline Woods
What are you seeing in terms of seasonal momentum and actually how strong the consumer is at this point?
Tsvetta Kaleynska
Well, I have to say that because of this most recent data that I analyzed, there was a lot there were a lot of mixed feelings that the consumer had. So again, we’re right now going into the holiday season. So there is a lot of optimism, a lot of excitement, and also a lot of shopping that’s going on. But at the same time, we are still in the inflation era of discussions that are happening in the US among U.S. consumers.
Tsvetta Kaleynska
So it’s very much like a mixed message that I saw a lot of momentum building up going into the holidays. But at the same time, also a lot of worry about discretionary spending and how much of that should actually be spent.
Caroline Woods
Okay, so let’s talk about the shopping that’s going on. What are consumers still buying? What are they holding back on? What are they cutting back on.
Tsvetta Kaleynska
So the most out of those 11 million, the most talked about of course, products or items that consumers were buying and are currently buying mentioned was 52% of these 11 million discussions. Were groceries anything related to groceries? Here are interesting calls that I could make. Beef and poultry and anything related to protein. I think we all have heard the news over and over again.
Tsvetta Kaleynska
Very expensive. Consumers are upset again going into Thanksgiving. Consumers are looking for anything related to deal when it comes to Turkey from the protein side and then moving into the pantry. The most talked about products were actually coffee. Of course, any pantry related to baking because again, we’re going into Thanksgiving. But the most interesting to me was actually mayonnaise.
Tsvetta Kaleynska
So any brands that are in the mayonnaise space should probably take that as an opportunity to do any type of campaigning, because that was an item that over year, over year is the first time that it actually pops up in conversations in the U.S.. So it must be a mayonnaise season right now.
Caroline Woods
What are those conversations about Mayo? What are they talking about? The price of it.
Tsvetta Kaleynska
Well, both pricing as in recipes too. So pricing, brand differentiation and the recipe around, you know, holiday season coming up. There is a lot of momentum in the mayonnaise space. Again, that was the interesting finding that I found, because when I compare the same discussion around mayonnaise from last year, same time last year, there are pretty much none.
Tsvetta Kaleynska
So again, good opportunity for these brands to to to leverage.
Caroline Woods
Okay. That’s really interesting this season of Mayo okay. So I don’t think it’s a huge surprise that people are still spending money on groceries. What else are they spending money on and what are they really kind of avoiding spending money on?
Tsvetta Kaleynska
So Beauty and Wellness was the second category that I saw trending, with 29% of all 11 million discussions around anything related to beauty and wellness. And this category we can treat as two ways or two buckets if we think about it. The first one would be your traditional beauty and wellness products. So anything related to makeup, skincare brands and traditional beauty.
Tsvetta Kaleynska
So hairdressers, barbershops, nails, etc.. And then the second one is more related to, I guess, recreational beauty and wellness methods that consumers seem to be using in the US, which is more related to vaping. Anything related to cannabis and similar products. So anything related to those categories. That category specifically was tied under the beauty and wellness, and it was more presented by consumers as a stress management tool, which then brought us back tied to that inflation discussion.
Tsvetta Kaleynska
And also, honestly, the tariff discussion on how expensive some of these products were. So that category, I thought, was fascinating when I dove deeper into it, and I thought that it’s interesting how the U.S. consumer presently, at most recently, is literally coping with that stress coming from news, from the inflation updates and also from day to day survival.
Tsvetta Kaleynska
What it seems like. And the third most interesting category, which I found was obviously there’s other and discretionary spending, which we looked in a bunch of products and sides. The interesting thing that I saw, there were two things. The first one is engagement rings are spiking right now. Anything related to marriage and engagement ring conversations is trending higher.
Tsvetta Kaleynska
I think not so surprising given the holiday season. And then the second one is actually that platforms such as TikTok seem to be treated as a whole new way of e-commerce right now. So consumers discussed in detail a variety of products, including bras, massage guns. And again, like Bonzai tools that I had to look up what they actually what that means.
Tsvetta Kaleynska
Just because they have been bombarded with so much messaging on that specific platform that it has become and could be treated as almost another retailer. So that is a very interesting finding, I think from investment side, not so much about what consumers care about currently and presently, but how this platform specifically is going to be treated as a retailer in the future with innovative tools.
Tsvetta Kaleynska
And again, specific algorithms that the same consumers just talked about this month, where they feel like they’re submerged into this e-commerce space.
Caroline Woods
Yeah, I was taking a look at your notes, and some of the unexpected purchase trends were quite surprising to me. Things that are definitely not on my radar, including the professional Bonzai tools, high capacity dust collectors, which I could use, a viral $8 jelly bra from TikTok shop Fortnite Cosmetics, impulse filled TikTok shop carts. So I think it’s something certainly to watch is how TikTok is really changing consumer behavior.
Caroline Woods
You say your point at real is to really take the the Main Street analytics and apply them to Wall Street. What’s the message to Wall Street right now based on everything that you’re seeing?
Tsvetta Kaleynska
Well, it would depend. My answer would depend on what the focus and objective of Wall Street is, whether we’re focused on, again, stock earnings by brand. Then my message would be continue focusing on places and commerce shops that deliver high visibility, but also good algorithmic profiles and technical capabilities with the ability to basically scale reach not only the US but also international.
Tsvetta Kaleynska
If we talk about my message to Wall Street, when it comes to marketing campaigns and branding campaigns, I would absolutely say that since this is we’re in the perfect season to advertise anything related to food. And again, those pantry items that we mentioned just now, this is probably a really good time to leverage all your marketing tools under your belt and maybe try to loop in some influencers, as it really appears that TikTok is really working as an e-commerce, place.
Tsvetta Kaleynska
And in general, I thought to give just one advice. It would be just continue monitoring the high profile retailers and how they’re treating AI at the moment, because that is going into Q4 in 2026. That is all that we would probably want to focus on, especially because it will really be coupled and tied directly to everything from products to the whole funnel of the product, from landing on the page to actually shopping, exiting that shopping cart and completing it, and then to the deliverability that we just covered.
Caroline Woods
Okay, so that’s the message to Wall Street. What’s the overall message about the consumer that you’re getting right now? Based on all of the the social listening that you’re doing, the combing through, what is the state of the U.S. consumer right now?
Tsvetta Kaleynska
The state of the U.S. consumer right now is very shaky, I would say, for brands. Be very careful how you talk to your consumer and how you pick your partnerships and how you pick your messaging. Anything that is new and innovative in your marketing strategy, forget about it, do not do it now is not a time to test how far your audience will go with this new and flashy strategy that you have.
Tsvetta Kaleynska
Just keep it the same. Keep it steady when it comes to general U.S. consumer data, I’d say it’s a very nuanced profile right now. This has been probably one of the toughest year for consumers between tariffs, inflation, multiple global economic and political societal changes that we’ve seen. So again, just keep it safe. And I would say stay low.
Tsvetta Kaleynska
Honestly this is the year to be very careful.
Caroline Woods
Shaky consumer but still willing to spend money on bonds, AI tools and jelly bros spread to really appreciate all of your insights. Really interesting. Thank you so.
Tsvetta Kaleynska
Much. Thank you for having me.
Caroline Woods
That’s Tsvetta Kaleynska, founder and CEO of Rila Global Consulting.
#consumers #spending