Inflation is likely to show another uptick, giving Bank of England policymakers more to consider ahead of their next meeting.
Official figures due on Wednesday are expected to show year-on-year consumer price growth in the year to July hitting 3.7% , compared with 3.6% in June, according to a Reuters poll.
There is particular upward pressure in services inflation – likely to reach 4.8%, from 4.7%.
The Bank last month cut interest rates to help stimulate lacklustre economic growth, but the upward trend in prices will test its insistence that inflation will be temporary.
Sceptics point to the last cut being carried by the narrowest of margins, a 5-4 vote.
Hays to give clues on outlook
Recruitment specialist Hays issued a profit warning in mid-June, so its statement this week may not contain many surprises, say AJ Bell analysts Russ Mould and Danni Hewson.
However, they say the outlook statement from chief executive Dirk Hahn for the year to June 2026 could be interesting, as economists, policymakers and investors try to assess where the global economy may be heading next.
Hays’ shares have hit their lowest mark since 2011, so at least the bar of expectations is not high after the trading alert. Mr Hahn cited broad-based weakness across the recruiters’ target markets, especially for permanent hires.
He used the June update to steer expectations for full-year operating, pre-exceptional profit to around £45 million compared with the £56m consensus forecast that prevailed before the trading statement and the £105m earned in the year to June 2024.
Analysts fear a further dividend cut and some even think the final dividend for 2025 and the first-half dividend for the new financial year could be cut to zero.
DIARY
Monday 18 August
- Rightmove UK house price index
Tuesday 19 August
- Trading statement from BHP Group
Wednesday 20 August
- First-half results from Costain, Ithaca Energy and Kenmare Resources
- UK inflation
Thursday 21 August
- Trading statement from Hays
- Flash purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) for manufacturing industries in the UK and USA
Friday 22 August
- GfK UK consumer confidence survey
- UK retail sales
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